Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) expects domestic crude steel demand in the fourth quarter of 2025 to reach 20.23 million tons, up 1.2% from the previous quarter but 2.4% lower year-on-year.

Including exports, Japan’s total steel demand is projected at 18.47 million tons, a 0.4% quarterly rise but a 3.5% annual decline. Exports are forecast at 6.2 million tons, down 0.6% from the third quarter and 6.1% year-on-year. 

Demand for ordinary steel is expected to fall 3.6% year-on-year to 14.7 million tons, while special steel demand will drop 3% to 3.75 million tons. 

METI attributes the decline mainly to weaker exports, driven by China’s EV expansion, slower economies in Southeast Asia and Europe, and ongoing trade measures affecting Japan’s steel sector.